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- 1 Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, VIC
- 2 Monash University, Melbourne, VIC
- 3 Centre for Medicine Use and Safety, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC
- 4 Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, the University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC
Open access:
Open access publishing facilitated by Monash University, as part of the Wiley ‐ Monash University agreement via the Council of Australian University Librarians.
Data Sharing:
Aggregated NDSS data may be made available upon reasonable request to the corresponding author. Limitations on use of the data may apply, subject to approval from the data custodians.
We analysed data from the National Diabetes Services Scheme (NDSS), an initiative of the Australian government administered by Diabetes Australia. Dianna J Magliano (APP2016668) and Jonathan E Shaw (APP1173952) are supported by National Health and Medical Research Council Investigator Grants. The study was partially supported by a Diabetes Australia Research Program grant and the Operational Infrastructure Support Program of the Victorian government, which had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report.
Jonathan E Shaw has received consultancy fees from AstraZeneca, Sanofi, Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, Mylan, Pfizer, Roche, and Abbott. He has also received payments and honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers’ bureaus, manuscript writing, and educational events from AstraZeneca, Mylan, Boehringer Ingelheim, Roche, Zuellig, and Eli Lilly.
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Abstract
Objectives: To estimate changes in the incidence of clinically diagnosed type 2 diabetes in Australia, overall and by age, sex, socio‐economic disadvantage, geographic remoteness, and country of birth.
Study design: Population‐based study; analysis of National Diabetes Services Scheme (NDSS) data (age–period–cohort models).
Setting, participants: Data were extracted for incident cases of type 2 diabetes, 1 January 2005 to 31 December 2019, in residents of the Australian Capital Territory, New South Wales, Queensland, and Victoria aged 20 years or older registered with the NDSS. The numbers of people at risk were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Main outcome measures: Changes in the incidence of type 2 diabetes, 2005–2019, by age, postcode‐level socio‐economic disadvantage (Index of Relative Socioeconomic Disadvantage) and remoteness (major city, inner regional, outer regional/remote/very remote), and country of birth, stratified by sex.
Results: During 2005–2019, 741 535 people aged 20 years or older with incident type 2 diabetes were registered with the NDSS; 421 190 were men (56.8%). Overall, the incidence of type 2 diabetes increased with age (until about age 70 years) and socio‐economic disadvantage for both sexes; it was higher in inner regional areas than in major cities or outer regional/remote/very remote areas during 2005–2015, but highest among people in major cities after 2015. The age‐standardised incidence of type 2 diabetes increased during 2005–2010, both among men (annual percentage change [APC], 4.4%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.6–5.2%) and women (APC, 2.9%; 95% CI, 2.2–3.7%); it declined during 2010–2019 among both men (APC, –5.2%; 95% CI, –5.4% to –4.9%) and women (APC, –6.5%; 95% CI, –6.8% to –6.2%). In general, similar patterns (but of differing magnitude) applied to all age, sex, socio‐economic disadvantage, and remoteness groups. However, the incidence of type 2 diabetes increased during 2011–2019 among people born in Asia, North Africa and the Middle East, and the Pacific Islands.
Conclusions: The incidence of type 2 diabetes in Australian adults declined during 2010–2019 across all age, sex, socio‐economic disadvantage, and remoteness groups, but increased among people from Asia, North Africa and the Middle East, and the Pacific Islands.