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Updates in the management of inflammatory bowel disease during pregnancy

Sally J Bell and Emma K Flanagan
Med J Aust 2019; 210 (6): . || doi: 10.5694/mja2.50062
Published online: 25 March 2019

Summary

 

  • The best pregnancy outcomes for women with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) occur when their disease is in remission at conception and remains in remission throughout pregnancy.
  • Active IBD can lead to adverse pregnancy outcomes, including spontaneous abortion, pre‐term birth and low birthweight.
  • The majority of women with IBD who are taking maintenance medication will require medication throughout the pregnancy to prevent disease relapse.
  • Most IBD medications are considered safe in pregnancy and breastfeeding, except for methotrexate.
  • Pre‐conception counselling should be arranged with the patient's IBD specialist and should include discussions regarding the importance of optimising disease control before and during pregnancy as well as the medication management plan for pregnancy.
  • Patients with IBD should be reassured that their fertility is normal when the disease is quiescent, with the exception of women who have had pelvic surgery.
  • IBD activity should be carefully monitored during pregnancy using non‐invasive techniques, and disease flares during pregnancy should be treated promptly with escalation of therapy in consultation with the patient's IBD specialist.
  • Mode of delivery should be determined by obstetric need; however, caesarean delivery is preferred for women with a history of ileal pouch anal anastomosis surgery or active perianal Crohn's disease.

 


  • St Vincent's Hospital, Melbourne, VIC


Correspondence: Sally.Bell@svhm.org.au

Competing interests:

No relevant disclosures.

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Evaluating the benefits of a rapid access chest pain clinic in Australia

James Andrew Black, Kevin Cheng, Jo‐Anne Flood, Garry Hamilton, Serena Parker, Anees Enayati, Faisal S Khan and Tom Marwick
Med J Aust 2019; 210 (7): . || doi: 10.5694/mja2.50021
Published online: 25 March 2019

Abstract

Objectives: To compare the outcomes and safety of a rapid access chest pain clinic (RACPC) in Australia with those of a general cardiology clinic.

Design: Prospective comparison of the outcomes for patients attending an RACPC and those of historical controls.

Setting: Royal Hobart Hospital cardiology outpatient department.

Participants: 1914 patients referred for outpatient evaluation of new onset chest pain (1479 patients seen in the RACPC, 435 patients previously seen in the general cardiology clinic).

Main outcome measures: Service outcomes (review times, number of clinic reviews); adverse events (unplanned emergency department re‐attendances at 30 days and 12 months; major adverse cardiovascular events at 12 months, including unplanned revascularisation, acute coronary syndrome, stroke, cardiac death).

Results: Median time to review was shorter for RACPC than for usual care patients (12 days [IQR, 8–15 days] v 45 days [IQR, 27–89 days]). All patients seen in the RACPC received a diagnosis at the first clinic visit, but only 139 patients in the usual care group (32.0%). There were fewer unplanned emergency department re‐attendances for patients in the RACPC group at 30 days (1.6% v 4.4%) and 12 months (5.7% v 12.9%) than in the control group. Major adverse cardiovascular events were less frequent among patients evaluated in the RACPC (0.2% v 1.4%).

Conclusions: Patients were evaluated more efficiently in the RACPC than in a traditional cardiology clinic, and their subsequent rates of emergency department re‐attendances and adverse cardiovascular events were lower.

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  • 1 Royal Hobart Hospital, Hobart, TAS
  • 2 Austin Health, Melbourne, VIC
  • 3 Baker IDI Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, VIC


Correspondence: andrew.black@ths.tas.gov.au

Acknowledgements: 

We gratefully acknowledge grants from the Tasmanian Community Fund and the virtual Tasmanian Academic Health Sciences Precinct. We thank the staff and patients of the Royal Hobart Hospital who attended or worked in the RACPC, as well as the National Heart Foundation for their ongoing support. We are grateful to James Sharman for his assistance with the statistical analyses.

Competing interests:

No relevant disclosures.

  • 1. Nawar EW, Niska RW, Xu J. National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey: 2005 emergency department summary. Adv Data 2007; 386: 1–32.
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Cultural respect in general practice: a cluster randomised controlled trial

Siaw‐Teng Liaw, Vicki Wade, John S Furler, Iqbal Hasan, Phyllis Lau, Margaret Kelaher, Wei Xuan and Mark F Harris
Med J Aust 2019; 210 (6): . || doi: 10.5694/mja2.50031
Published online: 25 March 2019

Abstract

Objective: To examine whether the Ways of Thinking and Ways of Doing (WoTWoD) cultural respect framework improves clinically appropriate anticipatory care in general practice and the cultural respect levels of medical practice staff.

Design: Mixed methods, cluster randomised controlled trial with a participatory action research approach.

Setting, participants: Fifty‐six general practices in Sydney and Melbourne, 2014–2017.

Intervention: WoTWoD encompasses a toolkit (ten scenarios illustrating cross‐cultural behaviour in clinical practice), one half‐day workshop, cultural mentor support for practices, and a local care partnership between participating Medicare locals/primary health networks and local Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Services for guiding the program and facilitating community engagement. The intervention lasted 12 months at each practice.

Major outcomes: Rates of claims for MBS item 715 (health assessment for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander People) and recording of chronic disease risk factors; changes in cultural quotient (CQ) scores of practice staff.

Results: Complete results were available for 28 intervention (135 GPs, 807 Indigenous patients) and 25 control practices (210 GPs, 1554 Indigenous patients). 12‐Month rates of MBS item 715 claims and recording of risk factors for the two groups were not statistically significantly different, nor were mean changes in CQ scores, regardless of staff category and practice attributes.

Conclusion: The WoTWoD program did not increase the rate of Indigenous health checks or improve cultural respect scores in general practice. Conceptual, methodologic, and contextual factors that influence cultural mentorship, culturally respectful clinical practice, and Indigenous health care require further investigation.

Trial registration: Australia New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12614000797673.

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  • 1 UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW
  • 2 Centre for Primary Health Care and Equity, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW
  • 3 Menzies School of Health Research, Darwin, NT
  • 4 University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC
  • 5 Centre for Health Policy, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC
  • 6 Ingham Institute of Applied Medical Research, Sydney, NSW


Correspondence: siaw@unsw.edu.au

Acknowledgements: 

We acknowledge the contributions of Lisa Jackson‐Pulver and the cultural mentors Phillip Orcher, Faye Daniels, Rhonda McPherson, Aunty Diane Kerr, and Nina Fitzgerald that ensured the cultural appropriateness of the design, implementation and interpretation of our study. The trial was funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council (APP1065491).

Competing interests:

No relevant disclosures.

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Early initiation of antiretroviral therapy for people newly diagnosed with HIV infection in Australia: trends and predictors, 2004–2015

Hamish McManus, Denton Callander, Basil Donovan, Darren B Russell, Catherine C O'Connor, Stephen C Davies, David A Lewis, Margaret E Hellard, Marcus Y Chen, Kathy Petoumenos, Rick Varma, Aaron Cogle, Mark Alastair Boyd, Andrew Grulich, James Pollard, Nick Medland, Christopher K Fairley and Rebecca J Guy
Med J Aust 2019; 210 (6): . || doi: 10.5694/mja2.50006
Published online: 25 March 2019

Abstract

Objectives: To determine trends in and predictors of early treatment for people newly diagnosed with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in Australia.

Design, setting: Retrospective cohort analysis of routinely collected longitudinal data from 44 sexual health clinics participating in the Australian Collaboration for Coordinated Enhanced Sentinel Surveillance (ACCESS) program.

Participants: Patients diagnosed with HIV infections, January 2004 – June 2015.

Main outcome measures: Commencement of antiretroviral therapy within 6 months of HIV diagnosis (early treatment); demographic, clinical, and risk group characteristics of patients associated with early treatment; trends in early treatment, by CD4+ cell count at diagnosis.

Results: 917 people were diagnosed with HIV infections, their median age was 34 years (interquartile range [IQR]: 27–43 years), and 841 (92%) were men; the median CD4+ cell count at diagnosis was 510 cells/μL (IQR, 350–674 cells/μL). The proportion of patients who received early treatment increased from 17% (15 patients) in 2004–06 to 20% (34 patients) in 2007–09, 34% (95 patients) in 2010–12, and 53% (197 patients) in 2013–15 (trend, P < 0.001). The probability of early treatment, which increased with time, was higher for patients with lower CD4+ cell counts and higher viral loads at diagnosis.

Conclusions: The proportion of people newly diagnosed with HIV in sexual health clinics in Australia who received treatment within 6 months of diagnosis increased from 17% to 53% during 2004–2015, reflecting changes in the CD4+ cell count threshold in treatment guidelines. Nevertheless, further strategies are needed to maximise the benefits of treatment to prevent viral transmission and morbidity.

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  • 1 The Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW
  • 2 Sydney Sexual Health Centre, Sydney Hospital, Sydney, NSW
  • 3 Sexual Health Service Cairns, Cairns, QLD
  • 4 Northern Sydney Sexual Health Service, Royal North Shore Hospital, Sydney, NSW
  • 5 Western Sydney Sexual Health Centre, University of Sydney, Sydney
  • 6 Centre for Population Health, Burnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC
  • 7 Melbourne Sexual Health Centre, Alfred Health, Melbourne, VIC
  • 8 Sydney Sexual Health Centre, South Eastern Sydney Local Health District, Sydney, NSW
  • 9 National Association of People with HIV Australia, Melbourne, NSW
  • 10 University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA
  • 11 Lyell McEwin Hospital, Adelaide, SA
  • 12 University Hospital, Geelong, VIC
  • 13 Melbourne Sexual Health Centre, Monash University Central Clinical School, Melbourne, VIC


Correspondence: hmcmanus@kirby.unsw.edu.au

Competing interests:

No relevant disclosures.

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Monitoring the missing half: why reporting adolescent births is insufficient

Jennifer L Marino and Susan M Sawyer
Med J Aust 2019; 210 (5): . || doi: 10.5694/mja2.50047
Published online: 18 March 2019

Lack of national abortion data impedes development of sexual and reproductive health care policies and programs for young Australians

Recent data show a steady decrease in adolescent births to a historic low of 10 births per 1000 15–19‐year‐olds.1 Notwithstanding that some adolescent pregnancies are planned or wanted, these data are surely positive, as pregnant adolescents are vulnerable to numerous adversities and delaying pregnancy is healthier for mothers and children.2 However, birth rates reflect access to comprehensive sexuality education, reliable contraception and safe abortion. Specifically, as lower birth rates may reflect higher abortion rates, a complete national picture is required. More broadly, pregnancy and its outcomes reflect various inequities that continue to affect adolescents and their offspring across their lives. Greater understanding of adolescent pregnancy outcomes, including abortion, would help shape a suite of interventions for vulnerable adolescents, including interventions that facilitate access to quality schooling and alleviate poverty.


  • 1 Royal Women's Hospital, Melbourne, VIC
  • 2 University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC
  • 3 Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Melbourne, VIC



Acknowledgements: 

Jennifer Marino is supported by National Health and Medical Research Council Centre of Research Excellence in Adolescent Health grant 1134894 and project grant 1161145. We thank Dr Deborah Bateson (Family Planning Victoria), Ms Sarah Gafforini and Dr Philip Goldstone (Marie Stopes Australia), Dr Cedric Manen (Family Planning Tasmania) and Prof Rachel Skinner (University of Sydney and Children's Hospital Westmead) for enlightening conversations about this topic and comments on the manuscript.

Competing interests:

No relevant disclosures.

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The burden of pancreatic cancer in Australia attributable to smoking

Maria E Arriaga, Claire M Vajdic, Robert J MacInnis, Karen Canfell, Dianna J Magliano, Jonathan E Shaw, Julie E Byles, Graham G Giles, Anne W Taylor, Tiffany K Gill, Vasant Hirani, Robert G Cumming, R Paul Mitchell, Emily Banks, Julie Marker, Barbara‐Ann Adelstein and Maarit A Laaksonen
Med J Aust 2019; 210 (5): . || doi: 10.5694/mja2.12108
Published online: 11 March 2019

Abstract

Objective: To estimate the burden of pancreatic cancer in Australia attributable to modifiable exposures, particularly smoking.

Design: Prospective pooled cohort study.

Setting, participants: Seven prospective Australian study cohorts (total sample size, 365 084 adults); participant data linked to national registries to identify cases of pancreatic cancer and deaths.

Main outcome measures: Associations between exposures and incidence of pancreatic cancer, estimated in a proportional hazards model, adjusted for age, sex, study, and other exposures; future burden of pancreatic cancer avoidable by changes in exposure estimated as population attributable fractions (PAFs) for whole population and for specific population subgroups with a method accounting for competing risk of death.

Results: There were 604 incident cases of pancreatic cancer during the first 10 years of follow‐up. Current and recent smoking explained 21.7% (95% CI, 13.8–28.9%) and current smoking alone explained 15.3% (95% CI, 8.6–22.6%) of future pancreatic cancer burden. This proportion of the burden would be avoidable over 25 years were current smokers to quit and there were no new smokers. The burden attributable to current smoking is greater for men (23.9%; 95% CI, 13.3–33.3%) than for women (7.2%; 95% CI, –0.4% to 14.2%; P = 0.007) and for those under 65 (19.0%; 95% CI, 8.1–28.6%) than for older people (6.6%; 95% CI, 1.9–11.1%; P = 0.030). There were no independent relationships between body mass index or alcohol consumption and pancreatic cancer.

Conclusions: Strategies that reduce the uptake of smoking and encourage current smokers to quit could substantially reduce the future incidence of pancreatic cancer in Australia, particularly among men.

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  • 1 Centre for Big Data Research in Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW
  • 2 Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, VIC
  • 3 Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC
  • 4 Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, NSW
  • 5 University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW
  • 6 Prince of Wales Clinical School, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW
  • 7 Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, VIC
  • 8 Research Centre for Gender, Health and Ageing, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, NSW
  • 9 Adelaide Medical School, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA
  • 10 Charles Perkins Centre, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW
  • 11 ANZAC Research Institute, University of Sydney and Concord Hospital, Sydney, NSW
  • 12 Centre for Vision Research, Westmead Institute for Medical Research, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW
  • 13 Australian National University, Canberra, ACT
  • 14 Cancer Voices South Australia, Adelaide, SA


Correspondence: m.laaksonen@unsw.edu.au

Acknowledgements: 

We thank the investigators and participants of the participating cohort studies and surveys for providing the data for the cohort consortium. Our investigation was supported by the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC; 1060991). The NHMRC also supported Maarit Laaksonen (I1053642), Karen Canfell (1082989), Emily Banks (1136128), Jonathan Shaw (1079438) and Dianna Magliano (1118161). Maarit Laaksonen was also supported by the Cancer Institute NSW (13/ECF/1‐07). Maria Arriaga was supported by an Australian Postgraduate Award and a Translational Cancer Research Network PhD Scholarship Top‐up Award.Details of funding and data sources for the 45 and Up Study (www.saxinstitute.org.au/our-work/45-up-study/for-partners) and the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (www.alswh.org) are available on the study websites. Cohort recruitment for the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study was funded by Cancer Council Victoria and the Victorian Health Promotion Foundation (VicHealth); the study was supported by NHMRC grants 209057 and 396414 and by Cancer Council Victoria (infrastructure support). The CHAMP study is funded by the NHMRC (301916) and the Ageing and Alzheimer's Institute, Sydney. We acknowledge the assistance of the Data Linkage Unit at the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare for undertaking the data linkage to the Australian Cancer Database and the National Death Index.

Competing interests:

No relevant disclosures.

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Identifying the cultural heritage of patients during clinical handover and in hospital medical records

David JR Morgan, Tania Harris, Ron Gidgup and Martin Whitely
Med J Aust 2019; 210 (5): . || doi: 10.5694/mja2.12107
Published online: 11 March 2019

Abstract

Objective: To examine the frequency of and rationale for hospital doctors mentioning a patient's cultural heritage (ethnicity, national heritage, religion) during medical handovers and in medical records.

Design: Four‐phase observational study, including the covert observation of clinical handovers in an acute care unit (ACU) and analysis of electronic medical records (EMRs) of ACU patients after their discharge to ward‐based care.

Setting, participants: 1018 patients and the doctors who cared for them at a tertiary hospital in Western Australia, May 2016 – February 2018.

Main outcome measure: References to patients’ cultural heritage by ACU doctors during clinical handover (written or verbal) and by ward‐based doctors in hospital EMRs (written only), by geographic ethnic–national group.

Results: In 2727 ACU clinical handovers of 1018 patients, 142 cultural heritage identifications were made (ethnicity, 84; nationality, 41; religion, 17); the rate was highest for Aboriginal patients (370 [95% CI, 293–460] identifications per 1000 handovers). 14 505 EMR pages were reviewed; 380 cultural heritage identifications (ethnicity, 257; nationality, 119; religion, 4) were recorded. A rationale for identification was documented for 25 of 142 patients (18%) whose ethnic–national background was mentioned during handover or in their EMR. Multivariate analysis (adjusted for demographic, socio‐economic and medical factors) indicated that being an Aboriginal Australian was the most significant factor for identifying ethnic–national background (handovers: adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 21.7; 95% CI, 7.94–59.4; hospital EMRs: aOR, 13.6; 95% CI, 5.03–36.5). 44 of 75 respondents to a post‐study survey (59%) were aware that Aboriginal heritage was mentioned more frequently than other cultural backgrounds.

Conclusions: Explicitly mentioning the cultural heritage of patients is inconsistent and seldom explained. After adjusting for other factors, Aboriginal patients were significantly more likely to be identified than patients with other backgrounds.

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  • 1 South Metroplitan Health Service, Perth, WA
  • 2 Health Consumers’ Council (WA), Perth, WA
  • 3 John Curtin Institute of Public Policy, Curtin University, Perth, WA



Acknowledgements: 

We thank Jenny Thompson for assisting with the collection of the APACHE III data.

Competing interests:

No relevant disclosures.

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Current management of glaucoma

Jed Lusthaus and Ivan Goldberg
Med J Aust 2019; 210 (4): . || doi: 10.5694/mja2.50020
Published online: 4 March 2019

Summary

 

  • Glaucoma is an irreversible progressive optic neuropathy, for which the major proven treatment is to lower the intraocular pressure (IOP).
  • Five groups of IOP‐lowering eye drops have varying mechanisms of action. Some drops, such as β‐blockers and α‐2 agonists, have potentially serious systemic side effects. Acetazolamide is the only available oral agent; it is effective at lowering IOP, but significant side effects relegate its use usually to refractory glaucoma.
  • Two new eye drops, netarsudil and latanoprostene bunod, have recently been approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration. Both have novel IOP‐lowering mechanisms and target the conventional aqueous outflow system.
  • Selective laser trabeculoplasty is a gentle treatment that enhances conventional aqueous outflow. It may be used as an initial treatment, as a substitute for eye drops, or to delay glaucoma drainage surgery.
  • Recent advancements in glaucoma surgery have seen an influx of minimally invasive glaucoma surgery devices, which are being used more frequently and earlier on in the treatment paradigm. As limited long term data are available, trabeculectomy remains the gold standard IOP‐lowering procedure. Improvements in drug delivery are on the horizon. Drug‐eluting devices and implants are able to deliver the drug closer to the receptors for an extended period of time. This will improve treatment adherence and efficacy, which are major limitations with current medical therapy.

 


  • 1 University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW
  • 2 Sydney Hospital and Sydney Eye Hospital, Sydney, NSW


Correspondence: eyeGoldberg@gmail.com

Competing interests:

No relevant disclosures.

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Deprescribing cholinesterase inhibitors and memantine in dementia: guideline summary

Emily Reeve, Barbara Farrell, Wade Thompson, Nathan Herrmann, Ingrid Sketris, Parker J Magin, Lynn Chenoweth, Mary Gorman, Lyntara Quirke, Graeme Bethune and Sarah N Hilmer
Med J Aust 2019; 210 (4): . || doi: 10.5694/mja2.50015
Published online: 4 March 2019

Abstract

Introduction: Cholinesterase inhibitors (ChEIs) and memantine are medications used to treat the symptoms of specific types of dementia. Their benefits and harms can change over time, particularly during long term use. Therefore, appropriate use of ChEIs and memantine involves both prescribing these medications to individuals who are likely to benefit, and deprescribing (withdrawing) them from individuals when the risks outweigh the benefits. We recently developed an evidence‐based clinical practice guideline for deprescribing ChEIs and memantine, using robust international guideline development processes.

Main recommendations: Our recommendations aim to assist clinicians to:

  • identify individuals who may be suitable for a trial of deprescribing ChEIs and memantine (such as those who do not have an appropriate indication, those who have never experienced a benefit, those who appear to be no longer benefitting, and those who have severe or end‐stage dementia); and
  • taper treatment and monitor individuals during the deprescribing process.

Changes in management as a result of the guideline:

  • Deprescribing ChEIs and memantine through shared decision making with individuals and their caregivers by:
    1. determining their treatment goals;
    2. discussing benefits and harms of continuing and ceasing medication, from the start of therapy and throughout; and
    3. engaging them in monitoring after discontinuation, while informing carers that the individual will continue to decline after discontinuation.
  • This approach may reduce adverse drug reactions and medication burden, leading to improved quality of life in people with dementia.

 


  • 1 NHMRC Cognitive Decline Partnership Centre, Kolling Institute of Medical Research, Northern Clinical School, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW
  • 2 Dalhousie University and Nova Scotia Health Authority, Halifax, Canada
  • 3 Bruyère Research Institute, Ottawa, Canada
  • 4 University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada
  • 5 University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark
  • 6 Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Toronto, Canada
  • 7 University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
  • 8 Dalhousie University, Halifax, Canada
  • 9 University of Newcastle, Newcastle, NSW
  • 10 NSW and ACT Research and Evaluation Unit, GP Synergy Regional Training Organisation, Sydney, NSW
  • 11 Centre for Healthy Brain Ageing, UNSW, Sydney, NSW
  • 12 University of Notre Dame, Sydney, NSW
  • 13 St Martha's Regional Hospital, Antigonish, Canada
  • 14 Consumer Network, Alzheimer's Australia, Canberra, ACT
  • 15 Dementia Training Australia
  • 16 Nova Scotia Health Authority, Halifax, Canada
  • 17 Royal North Shore Hospital and University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW


Correspondence: emily.reeve@sydney.edu.au

Funding:

The guideline development, publication, dissemination and implementation were funded through an NHMRC‐ARC Dementia Research Development Fellowship awarded to Emily Reeve (APP1105777). The funding body had no involvement in guideline development and, as such, the views and/or interests of the funding body have not influenced the final recommendations.


Acknowledgements: 

We thank Lisa Kouladjian O'Donnell, Judith Godin, Caitlin Lees, Emma Squires, Ivanka Hendrix and Robin Parker, who contributed to the systematic review which informed the development of the guideline.

Competing interests:

Emily Reeve has received support to attend conferences to present work related to deprescribing by the NHMRC Cognitive Decline Partnership Centre, Canadian Frailty Network, TUTOR‐PHC Program (Western University), University of Sydney Medical School, Ramsay Research and Teaching Fund (Kolling Institute Travel Award, Royal North Shore Hospital Scientific Staff Council), Swiss Society of Internal Medicine and the Pharmacy Association of Nova Scotia; has received prize money from Bupa Health Foundation; and has received grants from the Canadian Frailty Network, CC‐ABHI Knowledge Mobilisation Partnership Program and the US National Institutes of Health for work related to deprescribing. Barbara Farrell has received consultancy fees and grants (including reimbursement for travel for research meetings or education sessions) from the Institute for Healthcare Improvement, College of Psychiatric and Neurologic Pharmacists, European Association of Hospital Pharmacists, Nova Scotia College of Pharmacists, Canadian Society of Hospital Pharmacists, and Ontario Pharmacists Association; and has received research grants from the Canadian Foundation for Pharmacy, Centre for Aging Brain Health and Innovation, Canadian Institute of Health Research, and Ontario Ministry of Health and Long‐Term Care for work related to deprescribing. Wade Thompson received a Master of Science stipend from government of Ontario for work on deprescribing, and speaking fees to present at conferences on deprescribing from the Advanced Learning in Palliative Medicine Conference, Ontario Long‐Term Care Clinicians Conference, and Geriatrics in Primary Care conference (University of Ottawa). Nathan Herrmann has received consultancy fees for dementia drug development from Lilly, Astellas and Merck; grants from Lundbeck and Roche for dementia investigational drug trials; and support from the Canadian Consortium on Neurodegeneration in Aging (CCNA) funded by the Canadian Institute of Health Research and several partners. Ingrid Sketris receives a partial salary stipend from Canadian Institute of Health Research (CIHR) as part of the Canadian Network for Observational Effect Studies and has received grants from CIHR (including funds utilized to present research results) and the Nova Scotia Department of Health and Wellness. Parker Magin has received grants from the Judith Jane Mason & Harold Stannett Williams Memorial Foundation Medical Program Grants, and the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners: Education Research Grant for potentially related work. Sarah Hilmer has received funding from the NHMRC Cognitive Decline Partnership Centre to support work related to deprescribing in people with dementia.

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External validation and comparison of four cardiovascular risk prediction models with data from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study

Loai Albarqouni, Jennifer A Doust, Dianna Magliano, Elizabeth LM Barr, Jonathan E Shaw and Paul P Glasziou
Med J Aust 2019; 210 (4): . || doi: 10.5694/mja2.12061
Published online: 4 March 2019

Abstract

Objectives: To evaluate the performance of the 2013 Pooled Cohort Risk Equation (PCE‐ASCVD) for predicting cardiovascular disease (CVD) in an Australian population; to compare this performance with that of three frequently used Framingham‐based CVD risk prediction models.

Design: Prospective national population‐based cohort study.

Setting: 42 randomly selected urban and non‐urban areas in six Australian states and the Northern Territory.

Participants: 5453 adults aged 40–74 years enrolled in the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study and followed until November 2011. We excluded participants who had CVD at baseline or for whom data required for risk model calculations were missing.

Main outcome measures: Predicted and observed 10‐year CVD risks (adjusted for treatment drop‐in); performance (calibration and discrimination) of four CVD risk prediction models: 1991 Framingham, 2008 Framingham, 2008 office‐based Framingham, 2013 PCE‐ASCVD.

Results: The performance of the 2013 PCE‐ASCVD model was slightly better than 1991 Framingham, and each was better the two 2008 Framingham risk models, both in men and women. However, all four models overestimated 10‐year CVD risk, particularly for patients in higher deciles of predicted risk. The 2013 PCE‐ASCVD (7.5% high risk threshold) identified 46% of men and 18% of women as being at high risk; the 1991 Framingham model (20% threshold) identified 17% of men and 2% of women as being at high risk. Only 16% of men and 11% of women identified as being at high risk by the 2013 PCE‐ASCVD experienced a CV event within 10 years.

Conclusions: The 2013 PCE‐ASCVD or 1991 Framingham should be used as CVD risk models in Australian. However, the CVD high risk threshold for initiating CVD primary preventive therapy requires reconsideration.

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  • 1 Centre for Research in Evidence‐Based Practice, Bond University, Gold Coast, QLD
  • 2 Baker IDI Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, VIC
  • 3 Menzies School of Health Research, Darwin, NT


Correspondence: lalbarqo@bond.edu.au

Acknowledgements: 

The AusDiab study was coordinated by the Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, and we gratefully acknowledge the support and assistance of the AusDiab Steering Committee and the study participants. The AusDiab study was funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council (grants 233200 and 1007544), the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing, the Northern Territory Department of Health and Community Services, the Tasmanian Department of Health and Human Services, the New South Wales, Western Australian, and South Australian Departments of Health, the Victorian Department of Human Services, Queensland Health, City Health Centre Diabetes Service (Canberra), Diabetes Australia, Diabetes Australia Northern Territory, the estate of the late Edward Wilson, the Jack Brockhoff Foundation, Kidney Health Australia, the Marian and FH Flack Trust, the Menzies Research Institute, the Pratt Foundation, Royal Prince Alfred Hospital (Sydney), the Victorian Government OIS Program, Abbott Australasia, Alphapharm, Amgen Australia, AstraZeneca, Bristol‐Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly Australia, GlaxoSmithKline, Janssen‐Cilag, Merck Sharp & Dohme, Novartis Pharmaceuticals, Novo Nordisk Pharmaceuticals, Pfizer, Roche Diagnostics Australia, Sanofi Aventis, and Sanofi‐Synthelabo. Elizabeth Barr is supported by a Heart Foundation post‐doctoral fellowship (101291).

Competing interests:

No relevant disclosures.

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