To the Editor: In their recent article on the use of modelling in pharmacoeconomics to estimate the potential benefits, risks and costs of preventive drugs, Liew and colleagues highlighted important strengths and limitations of this technique.1 One limitation is that modelling is discretionary: different analysts elect different models and get different answers. We argue that modelling is the first step. The next step is testing the predictive validity of the model by systematically collecting cost and effectiveness data over a period of time. Then the predictions of the original analysis could be compared to what actually transpired.
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K R J was a medical regulator for the United States Food and Drug Administration from 1985 to 2001, and now works for M-TAG, a private company that performs clinical, epidemiological and health economic evaluations of drugs, devices and technology.